Challenge
Alacrita’s pharma consultants were engaged to conduct a due diligence and valuation of a Phase II dermatology asset.
The company was undergoing a recapitalization and new investors were seeking an independent assessment of the company. The company had a broad Phase II clinical trial program in HPV warts, atopic dermatitis/eczema, psoriasis and molluscum contagiosum. One of the Phase II trials had failed its primary endpoint, but the company was planning a Phase III in a modified patient population.
Solution
Our pharma consultants reviewed the company’s dataroom, including clinical data and correspondence with FDA. We interviewed company executives to hear their story and spoke with several investigators who were participating in the clinical trial program to get a better understanding of the Probability of Success of subsequent efficacy trials.
To get a more independent perspective and to understand the market potential, we conducted an online survey of 50 dermatologists and pediatricians to understand how they reacted to the target product profile, and to what extent they would prescribe the drug given the alternative treatment options that are currently available, especially in atopic dermatitis and psoriasis.
We then built a risk-adjusted valuation model of the asset, using Monte Carlo simulation to accommodate real-world uncertainty for most assumptions. We reported our findings to the client on time and on budget and the report was referred to extensively by the new investor syndicate.