A UK-based pharma company specializing in oncology drug development sought to understand the potential value of a nanoparticle drug product in small cell lung cancer (SCLC). Alacrita was commissioned to produce an in-depth sales forecast to help the client understand the potential value of the product in this setting.
For the hemophilia product, Alacrita conducted a Monte Carlo simulation to express rNPV as a range and probability distribution. This model was used to account for the input assumptions carrying significant uncertainty. Alacrita projected the addressable market considering the target patient population, market share, drug pricing, clinical development timelines and costs, etc. Using this information, we estimated potential product revenue and considered the probability of success at each go/no-go development/regulator. Outputs of the valuation model also included histograms and tornado plots, the latter highlighting input parameters that drive the sensitivity of the valuation.
The OTC product valuation was generated using both a discounted cash flow and a comparables transaction analysis.
Our expertise in performing business and asset valuations covers a wide range of technology types including small molecules, biologics and cell and gene therapies. Valuations have been a staple of our practice since our inception in 2009.