A biotechnology company developing novel multi-specific antibody therapeutics to treat a range of cancers asked Alacrita to develop valuations for its four leading assets, as well as license deal options for partnering discussions.
Alacrita developed a valuation for the four assets in a total of 26 indications, developing projections for the addressable market, peak penetration, pricing and the associated product revenues in the major markets for each asset. The RoW opportunity was estimated as a multiple of the major market opportunity. We similarly developed projections for costs, timelines and probabilities of success at each go/no-go point. We evaluated the company’s own projections as potential inputs in addition to using our experience and judgement to develop assumptions for key inputs into the valuation model. The output was a risk-adjusted NPV valuation overlaid with Monte Carlo simulations to highlight the range of valuations and key sources of uncertainty.