Challenge
A preclinical-stage company developing an integrin-targeting oncology asset engaged Alacrita to quantify the value potential of its lead asset in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
For each indication, Alacrita was required to estimate projected sales and a rNPV valuation of the lead asset, focusing on the US and European markets.
Solution
Alacrita projected the addressable market considering the target patient population, market share, drug pricing, clinical development timelines and costs, etc. Using this information, we estimated potential product revenue in US and EU4+UK for PDAC, TNBC, NSCLC. We also considered the probability of success at each go/no-go development/regulatory pivotal point and the impact of that on the valuation.
For many of the input assumptions required for the valuation there was significant uncertainty, particularly given the early stage of development of the asset. We therefore used Monte Carlo simulation to express rNPV as a range and probability distribution. Outputs of the valuation model also included histograms and tornado plots, the latter highlighting input parameters that drive the sensitivity of the valuation.
Our Valuation Expertise
Our expertise in performing business and asset valuations covers a wide range of technology types including small molecules, biologics and cell and gene therapies. Valuations have been a staple of our practice since our inception in 2009.